230k iOS devices are being activated per day.
Per Day.
PER DAY.
That's just under 84M devices per year. Wow.
If I'm a developer I'm leaning very heavily into this iOS wind ... a wind that contains great development tools and a fanatically captive audience.
If I'm Google, well, I'm making sure my development tools and developer incentives are top notch starting yesterday.
Game. On.
Companies: $AAPL $GOOG $RIMM $HPQ
The apparent delay of Android 3.0 (Gingerbread) until after the first of the year is going to be troublesome for Google and OEMs looking to hammer the 2010 holiday season with true iPad competitors. The current Gingerbread timeline puts anything larger than a 7" tablet in doubt for the 2010 holiday season as Android 2.2 doesn't support the screen resolutions necessary to drive these larger devices. (2.2 supports a maximum resolution of 854 x 400)
While there will be a host of 5" and 7" (ereader / media player) function specific devices hitting the market for the holidays at ridiculously low prices (think $99 for Black Friday), the true iPad competitor at the 9" - 10" range will be noticeably absent until late Q1 or early Q2 2011. This bodes extremely well for Apple as they simply have to meet demand to clean up this holiday season. Considering how well Apple has met demand throughout the supply and demand chain to date for iPad, this shouldn't be a problem in any way shape or for. Next, Factor in the requisite app purchases for all of these new iPads. Finally, go very slightly out on a limb and say that a new iPod ships with a camera and FaceTime capability. You can pretty easily see the opportunity here to crush the holiday quarter. But what about the competition? There are only two potential holiday competitors that can match Apple in scale and distribution for the holiday season: The first is RIMM with their BlackPad. The fact that they fully control their OS bodes very well for a 9" - 10" product. The downside to this offering is that there is little to no chance RIMM can develop an application ecosystem deep enough to meet consumer demand in the next 3 months. This really positions a potential RIMM offering more in the business sector than the consumer sector ... At least in the short term. Simply stated, browsing and email alone won't be enough to unseat Apple in the consumer sector. The second is HP. They, too, control their own destiny with an existing form factor and the recent acquisition of Palm for the OS. However, on numerous occasions HP has intimated that their slate / tablet line will be a business focused offering. While they could pivot this and rely on the Palm WebOS ecosystem to bring a device to consumers this year, they face the same challenge as RIMM ... they simply can't scale the app ecosystem fast enough to make a dent. It's really not that complex. It is shaping up to be a VERY merry holiday earnings season for Apple.Don't believe the hype.
Public Enemy
There is a reason the early tablets to reach the market are all being panned (horrifically) by reviewers, media and consumers alike.
Quite simply, low price tablets won't win the race. In fact, they won't even make it to the starting line of the real game that is about to open this coming Black Friday, at a retailer near you.
Here's a semi-quick summary:
Capacitive v Resistive Touch Screens
The first wave of devices utilized resistive touch screens in order to cut cost. This was a horrible decision ... one that doomed the devices to failure before they even left the factory.
The problem with resistive screens is, quite simply, they don't work the way you expect them to work. We have all been trained by Apple iOS (and now Google Android) to expect fast and smooth responsiveness from touch screen devices. All of the early entrants failed to deliver on this promise. The minute you touch one of these resistive screen devices you are shocked and dismayed at how unresponsive it is. The failure to deliver on the first promise / expectation of the device dooms it in the eyes of the consumer, from the beginning, regardless of the price point.
Processors v Storage
Again, in order to cut costs, OEM's & ODM's are turning to lower speed processors. Any tablet in the 600 MHz range is going to struggle to match the speed and fluidity of most people's mobile phones. Quick failure #2. To combat this, many OEM's & ODM's are increasing the storage on the device to make it look like the tablets can hold significant amounts of your desired media. This may be the case. However, because no one wants to wait for the tablet to actually get to or play this media, it's a customer experience nightmare across the board.
In order to be in the tablet game you are going to have to find something running at a minimum of 1 GHz. Period. Anything less is going to be slower than your mobile phone and, well, you know the rest.
If you are looking at a dedicated reading device (e.g. Kindle, nook, etc. which are decidedly not tablets), the processor speed is going to be almost irrelevant. Storage will be the key here as consumers seek to be able to house their entire libraries with them at all times.
Connectivity
3G and 4G modules are relatively expensive. In some instances these modules can represent 25% or more of the total BOM of the device. To lower costs, the first wave of tablets are all coming with WiFi only service. This makes sense from a cost and complexity perspective. It's extremely difficult to provision, support and manage 3G / 4G devices. It's extremely expensive to deliver 3G / 4G wireless service - often costing the consumer $45 (or more) / month data contracts alone. This is one aspect of the tablet market that is going to change rapidly as more and more mobile phones come with optional hotspot services. Instead of using a dedicated contract, for an extra $20 - $25 per month, the customer can use their phone as a hotspot whenever / wherever they are to power their tablet device(s).
However, if these always-on, connected tablets are really going to hit the mass market, they are going to have to deliver integrated 3G / 4G capabilities in completely new and unique ways. Again, as Apple has illustrated with the iPad, the days of contracts are long over for third / fourth screen devices. This feature, alone, will separate the men from the boys (or the girls from the women if you prefer) in the tablet market. Those who are playing for keeps will have integrated 3G / 4G services without contracts. Those who are dabbling won't invest the time and resources and won't commit to a long term vision to deliver the proper solutions to market.
Apps & Ecosystem
There has been enough written here, so I'll be really brief. If you tablet doesn't have an already existing and supported ecosystem (iOS, Google certified Android), it's going to be really tough sledding. It's simply impossible to recreate the inertia already taking place in this market.
This means that devices that will win will be made by Apple (iOS) or made by OEM's & ODM's who understand you can't build junk and get it through the Google Android cert process to get the App Market on your devices. Again, higher costs for quality devices to play the real game.
Actual Distribution
In order to succeed at the mass market level, tablets are going to have to be available in mass market retail. This doesn't mean select stores of select retailers as we have seen from the early tablet entrants. This means your devices are on the shelves at Best Buy, Target, WalMart, Radio Shack and a host of other places that drive huge traffic, awareness and purchase volumes.
Playing this game requires serious money as everyone in the supply and distribution chain needs to make double digit margins to be happy. This means the price to the consumer is going to be higher. Unless everyone agrees to take back end money (of which there isn't enough to go around for all members of the supply and distribution chain), the prices will remain high for quality devices.
Content
It's expensive to get the licensed, DRM'd content that consumers want to see / buy. TV, movie, music, book, magazine and newspaper publishers all expect to get paid, well, for their content. This isn't a "hey, check it out. I'll give you a dime every time someone watches your show" business. This is a, "Listen here noob. You will pay us what we want, how we want to be paid for it, when we want to be paid for it model."
If you need further proof this is difficult, just look at how much work has gone into MSpot, Rdio, Hulu, iTunes, Rhapsody, Kindle, nook, Amazon's MP3 store, etc.
BILLIONS. With a B.
This is not a game for the faint of heart.
Support
Support costs real money. I've been fortunate to be involved in thousands of CRM implementations in my life and I can tell you from hands-on experience, it is expensive to provide serious, quality service to mass market consumers. In order to provide the level of support that the customer will demand, there has to be enough margin in the device and content ecosystem to pay for the service reps.
I'm sure lots of people are saying, "Yeah. Right. GetSatisfaction and it's all good."
HELL NO.
This won't work.
When you look at mass market consumers, the audience at which this really scales and becomes attractive to all participants, GetSatisfaction is not a viable support option. We are talking CSR's with keyboards and phones handling questions like helping your grandmother get access to the web to see the pictures of the grandkids playing baseball.
Upgrade Path
Finally, you have to provide an update path for the devices and their respective OS's. You have to be able to deliver the latest and greatest as soon as it's available. If you don't, another OEM / ODM will and, at that point, it's game over. Whether or not your consumers use the latest and greatest, the other app developers will and, if you can't support the break-out hit app, you're toast.
This professionalism takes engineers. Lots of them. They cost real money and like to be paid. On time.
A tablet device may disposable for the early adopters, but it is absolutely not disposable for the mass market consumer. It has to work today, tomorrow and many tomorrow's into the future.
The average household income of smartphone owners pushes close to $100k per year. This is SIGNIFICANTLY outside the realm of the mass market consumer.
This coud go on, but I noted in the beginning it would be semi-quick so I'll stop here.
Thoughts? Comments? Let me have it!
The release of Android 2.2 (a.k.a FroYo) marks a significant change in the way applications can be designed.
For the first time, applications can be installed on and take advantage of the memory card in the devices v. simply relying on the on-device memory.
This means developers can build applications pretty much at their whim without having to worry about arbitrary constraints enforced by the Android platform.
The developers I've been able to talk to saw this barrier as the reason why there is so little interest in developing Android versions of existing iOS applications.
Android 3.0 (a.k.a Gingerbread) is reported to be pushing the envelope even further with enhanced tools for game developers as well as improved GoogleTV integration for widget design.
Apple set the stage for iOS success by making applications extremely easy to develop.
Google and Android are finally catching up and opening the door to hundreds of millions of Android devices around the world with vastly improving tools. This should be more than enough to shake the trees and push development further on the Android platform.
Here's a great tip for adding speed dial numbers to your Android home screens.
This was a lifesaver for me. I hope it helps.

